{"id":32737,"date":"2025-12-19T17:29:02","date_gmt":"2025-12-19T17:29:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/preprod25.numeum.fr\/digital-market-trends-in-2025-a-slight-upturn-at-the-end-of-the-year-followed-by-a-gradual-return-to-growth-in-2026\/"},"modified":"2025-12-23T14:56:34","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T14:56:34","slug":"digital-market-trends-in-2025-a-slight-upturn-at-the-end-of-the-year-followed-by-a-gradual-return-to-growth-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"etudes","link":"https:\/\/preprod25.numeum.fr\/en\/etudes\/digital-market-trends-in-2025-a-slight-upturn-at-the-end-of-the-year-followed-by-a-gradual-return-to-growth-in-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Digital market trends in 2025: a slight upturn at the end of the year, followed by a gradual return to growth in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

After a mixed 2025, the French digital market began to recover at the end of the year, driven by generative AI and sovereignty issues. In its biannual Observatoire de conjoncture on trends and prospects in the digital market, Numeum and PAC report that, despite limited growth (2%), improving indicators in the second half of the year and an increased role for growth drivers (Saas, AI, etc.) mean that market growth can be expected to accelerate to 4.3% in 2026. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

After presenting an unfavorable outlook<\/a> for the first half of 2025, Numeum and PAC present a new analysis of the French digital market. <\/p>\n\n

Against a tense backdrop of international instability, economic forecasts point to a slowdown in activity compared with previous years. Growth is expected to be limited to 2% in 2025. Two major sectors (Banking and Industry) are very sluggish, helping to explain the sector’s discomfort. <\/p>\n\n

\"Half-year<\/figure>\n\n

In the face of difficulties, it’s all about teamwork<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n

Indeed, 2025 is marked by geopolitical instabilities, both international and national. In light of this, V\u00e9ronique Torner shares three key insights that will have a major impact, not only on the digital industry, but on all economic players: <\/p>\n\n

– European companies are struggling to gain a competitive edge due to over-regulation, market fragmentation and a lack of investment.<\/p>\n\n

– The industry and the companies that make it up are marked by a profound and dazzling transformation linked to artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n

– The fragility of the sector in terms of dependency caused by American supremacy creates imbalances.<\/p>\n\n

Faced with these realities, Numeum has resolutely chosen to work together. The union has launched the “Equipe de France du Num\u00e9rique<\/a> ” with the aim of uniting the forces of the digital industry to have a greater impact, act more effectively, and respond to the major challenges of our time. The industry’s rich and diverse ecosystem is brimming with initiative, talent and innovation, but remains fragmented, sometimes difficult to understand, and lacking the ability to speak with a single voice. <\/p>\n\n

NSEs: down but gradually improving<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n

The half-yearly “Observatoire de conjoncture” on market trends and prospects indicates that the NSE market is down by 1.8% (34.3 billion euros). This represents a smaller decline than anticipated. <\/p>\n\n

For 84% of those surveyed, this downturn is directly linked to customers’ economic situation, and for 39% to the international geopolitical situation. Among other reasons for this decline, the experts note a shift in spending from IT departments at ESNs to software publishers, a drop in business opportunities, and projects focused on optimization (price, automation, supplier massification). <\/p>\n\n

However, NSEs can look forward to a slight recovery in the final months of 2025.<\/p>\n\n

Charles Mauclair, President of the French College of Digital and Engineering Service Companies and Technology Consultant, and CEO of SII, explains,“For 2026, the indicators show that there’s the beginnings of a kick-start<\/em>.” Observers note that the decline seen in 2025 mainly affects ESNs with over 1,500 employees.“These same large companies are also the ones that feel the upturn more easily<\/em>,” Charles Mauclair points out.<\/p>\n\n

Strong growth confirmed for software and platform publishers<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n

In 2025, software and platform publishers<\/a> will continue to drive the digital market, with growth of 8.2% and sales of 29.1 billion euros.<\/p>\n\n

Jean-Philippe Couturier, President of the College of Software Publishers and Platforms, and CEO of Biznet.io – Whoz, explains: “The strong growth of SaaS, PaaS and IaaS continues the sector’s advance towards maturity. Today, 82% of companies claim to have a SaaS, PaaS or IaaS offering. Saas is therefore an established structural driver. <\/em>.”<\/p>\n\n

Among the driving forces behind this dynamic, the observatory highlights the accelerated migration to SaaS, the development of new recurring projects following the introduction of new regulatory obligations (NIS2, IA Act, RGAA) and sustained demand for data, artificial intelligence and cybersecurity.<\/p>\n\n

Another major point is that publishers are seeing significant productivity gains linked to generative AI, estimated on average at 12.5% in 2025, with an expected rise to 17% in 2026, confirming the central role of AI in the sector’s operational performance.<\/p>\n\n

Generative AI, a real driver of economic performance<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n

Artificial intelligence, particularly generative intelligence, is becoming a real driver of economic performance, differentiation and business model transformation. The Numeum and PAC<\/a> observatory shows that almost 40% of industry players are already seeing a positive impact of the technology on their margins and sales. <\/p>\n\n

This impact can be explained by several concrete levers identified by companies:<\/p>\n\n

– The creation of new offerings based on generative AI, according to 63% of respondents.<\/p>\n\n

– Faster delivery cycles, according to 58% of companies.<\/p>\n\n

– Increased ability to respond more quickly to calls for tender, for 54% of players.<\/p>\n\n

– Personalized customer solutions, encouraging additional sales (44%).<\/p>\n\n

– Improved customer satisfaction, contributing to loyalty and longer-term contracts (42%).<\/p>\n\n

Signs of recovery in 2026<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n

Despite this economic context, Numeum expects market growth to accelerate to 4.3% in 2026, with a gradual return to growth in services. In detail, NSEs are<\/a> expected to grow by 1.4%, to \u20ac35 billion, and software and platform publishers by 8.4%, to \u20ac31.6 billion. <\/p>\n\n

This positive signal can be attributed to the first signs of recovery seen at the end of 2025. A tangible rebound driven by investments in generative AI, service activities and data sovereignty. <\/p>\n\n

Benoit Darde, Comex member in charge of content and partner at Wavestone, explains: “Our observatory notes a rebound in sector activity, with a moderate return to growth. We are likely to see upward momentum, particularly in the banking, manufacturing and consulting sectors. <\/em>.”<\/p>\n\n

To confirm this rebound, 3 major trends should be followed:<\/p>\n\n

– Increased IT investment and the number of new projects.<\/p>\n\n

– The industrialization of generative AI.<\/p>\n\n

– The growing importance of sovereignty projects, which have become a cross-cutting issue for companies and government agencies in an uncertain geopolitical context.<\/p>\n\n

However, given the long cycles of ongoing transformations – such as AI and off-shoring – and against a backdrop of economic and geopolitical instability, Numeum stresses the complexity of accurately anticipating the evolution of the sector in 2026. A rebound should nevertheless be confirmed in the coming months. <\/p>\n\n

V\u00e9ronique Torner, President of Numeum, concludes: “After a difficult year, in recent months we have seen the first tangible signs of a return in demand for digital companies. [..]. This is certainly an encouraging recovery, and one that will continue into 2026, but we have to admit that we are not yet living up to our ambitions in terms of digitization. If our companies are to remain competitive in a revolutionary world marked by profound digital transformations, investment in digital technology must remain a priority. Tomorrow’s competitiveness depends on it. <\/em>.”<\/p>\n\n

To download Numeum’s half-yearly study, please fill in this form: <\/h2>\n\n

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